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A Marginal Autumn Statement

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has projected that, over the five year period from 2016-17 to 2020-21, there has been an improvement of £27 billion in the underlying forecast since the July Summer Budget. This largely reflects higher expected receipts from income taxes, corporation tax and VAT, along with a slight upward revision to future UK GDP growth.

Since the Summer Budget, the impact of the Government’s overall decisions on tax and spending will add £18.7 billion to public sector borrowing over the five year period – significantly less than the £27 billion improvement reported by the OBR. Measures set out in the Autumn Statement ensure that public sector net debt continues to decline as a share of GDP in every year of the forecast, and the budget is still expected to reach a surplus of £10.1 billion in 2019-20. 

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Daniel Mahoney & Tim Knox - Friday 27th November 2015

Daniel joined the Centre for Policy Studies as Head of Economic Research in November 2015. He was promoted to Deputy Director in March 2017. Prior to joining the CPS, he worked in research roles for a number of parliamentarians.

Tim Knox was Director of the CPS from 2011-2017. Before he was Director, Tim was the Editor at the CPS - a position in which he was responsible for publishing papers by every Conservative leader since Mrs Thatcher as well as by hundreds of leading academics and opinion formers.