Your location:

Are the doommongers right about the UK economy?

  • A UK stock market fall of 20% does not correlate with an impending recession. The FTSE 100 share price has historically been poor at predicting recessions.

  • The Carson model focusing on construction, manufacturing and unemployment is more accurate. All of these indicators in the UK remain robust.

  • Housing starts fell by 35% and 60% before the two previous recessions, but have increased by 23% in the last year.

  • But exports are still lagging. Government’s £1 trillion target by 2020 is set to be achieved 14 years late.

  • IMF and Eurochambers have also highlighted global risks. The OBR is likely to downgrade underlying forecasts at Budget 2016.

Daniel Mahoney & Tim Knox - Saturday 12th March 2016

Daniel joined the Centre for Policy Studies as Head of Economic Research in November 2015. He was promoted to Deputy Director in March 2017. Prior to joining the CPS, he worked in research roles for a number of parliamentarians.

Tim Knox was Director of the CPS from 2011-2017. Before he was Director, Tim was the Editor at the CPS - a position in which he was responsible for publishing papers by every Conservative leader since Mrs Thatcher as well as by hundreds of leading academics and opinion formers.